Fannie is Screaming Danger!

 -Rich Spohr, SATC  

    March 18, 2005

    Interesting developments in the markets....The nation's largest mortgage player Fannie Mae (FNM) is now circling the drain. Over the last 6 months FNM has dropped over 31%. Thats a $23 Billion dollar LOSS.

    Fannie is not merely the second largest financial entity in the country, after Citibank. Via her mortgage securitization, she's the engine of Real Estate Asset Inflation, the motor of Bubble II.

    With a balance sheet larger than the Federal Reserve's, Fannie is arguably a larger creator of money and credit than the Fed itself.

    Make no mistake: Fannie is a vital keystone of the US Ponzi Pyramid economy. If this Engine of Asset Inflation is shut down, the Fed will face grim choices in replacing Fannie's firehose-like credit creation.

    But the Fannie collapse is only the beginning, not the end, of a dismal process.

    Fannie is SCREAMING DANGER to anyone who will listen.

    The warning is not just about FNM stock. It's about ALL paper securities, including the dollar.

    The nation's largest insurer and Dow member (AIG) is under a major investigation with it's CEO forced to resign. AIG, formerly one of the largest manipulators of the Silver market has dropped 30% in the last 6 months alone, vaporising some $6 billion dollars in shareholder value.

    The nation's largest employer, best-known company, major mortgage player and Dow member General Motors (GM) is also circling the drain. GM has given up 44% of it's value or $12.5 billion dollars recently. Today, 3-18-05, a prominent Bloomberg economist recommended GM file Chapter 11 Bankruptsy.

    Our nation's largest bank and Dow member (Citibank) has been ordered by the Federal Reserve to halt acquisitions to get their financial and accounting house in order so as not to cause a derivitives meltdown.

    The biggest players in our financial economy are teetering on the brink, yet the Dow is still less than 3% off recently set 3-year highs. Are all these problems fully offset by a 3% drop?

    Quick Dow Jones Score Card:

    * AIG is caving.
    * GM is already Night of the Living Dead.
    * Disney is hustling its CEO out the back door.
    * Citigroup settles a lawsuit for 2.4 billion pesos (that could have been settled for 1.4 billion pesos).
    * General Electric looks OK if you ignore the fact that they are a big loan sharking operation in a rising rate environment.
    * Hewlett Packard just canned its CEO.
    * Intel is in a industry with a 0.78 book-to-bill ratio.
    * JP Morgan is exposed to all the derivatives in the universe
    * Coke is at risk big-time if there is a global slowdown (according to my friend who is the Coke analyst at...JPM)
    * McD's: They'll do fine because we are a bunch of fat swilling burgerheads.
    * Altria will do fine because that addiction ain't going anywhere.
    * Merck: Lost their biggest drug. Lost 2/3rds of their market cap. At least they are a "safe, must-hold" company.
    * Microsoft: It's stuck. Period.
    * Pfizer: See Merck above.
    * Walmart: Depends on resilient consumers.
    * Exxon Mobile: Work in progress. If they do well, the other 29 are toast.

    The Obvious Conclusion...

    Either there's an endless supply of "Greater Fools" stepping into this market or the dam is about to burst.